By-elections are a map of what may come next

The Outlier’s analysis of five years of ward by-elections offers journalists a useful reminder: election stories do not begin when the campaign officially starts.

Since the 2021 local government elections, South Africa has held 432 ward by-elections. According to The Outlier’s analysis, 119 of those seats changed party. That means more than one in four by-elections resulted in a political shift.

The headline finding is significant: the ANC has lost 68 ward seats since 2021, with those seats going to parties including the IFP, Patriotic Alliance, DA, EFF and MK. The important point is not only that the ANC is losing ground. It is that it is losing ground to different parties in different places.

For journalists preparing to cover the 2026 Local Government Elections, this kind of data is useful because it helps move coverage beyond slogans and rallies. By-elections can show where parties are under pressure, where opposition parties are gaining, and where local political identities may be shifting.

The story should not stop at the numbers. Reporters can use by-election data to identify municipalities and wards worth visiting, then ask voters what changed: service delivery, candidate choices, party loyalty, local scandals, or frustration with councils.